Mārupe vs Riga FC II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mārupe vs Riga FC II
Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win against Riga FC II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Mārupe currently sits in 6th place in the league, having accumulated 25 points from 19 matches. Their season has been a mix of highs and lows, reflected in their record of 8 wins, 1 draw, and 10 losses. The key statistic for Mārupe is their goal difference of -3, indicating they have struggled defensively but have managed to score a reasonable number of goals, with 29 goals in total. On the other hand, Riga FC II is in 8th place, just one point behind Mārupe with 24 points from the same number of matches. Their record shows 7 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal difference of -8. This suggests they have faced challenges on both ends of the pitch, particularly in defense, having conceded 36 goals. Their recent form reflects some inconsistency, with only one win in their last five matches, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model projects a win probability of approximately 55% for Mārupe, with a close score prediction of 2-1. However, a potential downside for Mārupe could be their recent form, which shows one win in their last five matches. If they do not improve, it could impact their performance. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, created by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Mārupe have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Mārupe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mārupe vs Riga FC II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.14 | 3.58 | 2.66 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.39 | 2.63 | |
| 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.63 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.16 | 3.51 | 2.65 | 1.46 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 2.16 | 3.58 | 2.73 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.39 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.70 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 2-1)The head-to-head record between Mārupe and Riga FC II shows 1 win for Mārupe, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Riga FC II. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with two matches ending in narrow results: a 1-0 win for Riga FC II and a 2-1 win for them as well. Mārupe managed a 2-0 victory in one encounter, while the other match ended in a goalless draw, suggesting a tendency towards low-scoring games. Mārupe's last win against Riga FC II was in May 2025, making it their only victory in the last four matches.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 89 | 17 | 72 | 54 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 23 | 37 | 51 | LWDWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 25 | 18 | 49 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 27 | 47 | WLWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 31 | 11 | 37 | LLWWW |
| 6 | Mārupe | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 25 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 15 | WLLLL |
| 13 |  JFK Ventspils | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 40 | -20 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMārupe have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 5-0 and lost to JDFS Alberts 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 2D 18L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Riga FC II have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with JFK Ventspils 1-1 and lost to JDFS Alberts 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 13L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMārupe
No reported absences
Riga FC II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mārupe average 1.5 goals per match at home; Riga FC II 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Mārupe have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 39% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Mārupe player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.