Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Mirassol, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, demonstrating strong season form with 11 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses from 20 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, having netted 37 goals while conceding just 18, resulting in a positive goal difference of 19. This solid performance highlights their ability to control games effectively. On the other hand, Mirassol finds themselves in 14th position, with a record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, as reflected in their last five matches, where they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. With 23 goals scored and 27 conceded, their goal difference of -4 indicates vulnerabilities in both attack and defense, which could be exploited by Flamengo. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for Flamengo, with a significant market expectation leaning towards their victory. However, a potential caveat for Flamengo could be complacency, as they might underestimate Mirassol. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which outlines our in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes this data-driven approach to provide accurate insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Mirassol manage games at home, conceding just 1.24 goals per match. Flamengo score 2.24 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 3.65 | 3.44 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 4.27 | 3.52 | 1.93 | 2.02 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 3.79 | 3.29 | 1.92 | 2.00 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.76 | 3.54 | 2.03 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 4.20 | 3.45 | 1.84 | 2.06 | 1.75 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
| 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 4.25 | 3.55 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Flamengo leads 1-0)In the last three matches between Mirassol and Flamengo, Flamengo has won once, and there has been one draw, with Mirassol yet to secure a victory. The encounters have shown a mix of results, with the most recent match ending in a high-scoring 3-3 draw, indicating that both teams can find the net. Prior to that, Flamengo edged out Mirassol with a narrow 2-1 win. Overall, the record reflects a competitive dynamic, but Flamengo has had the upper hand in terms of wins, while Mirassol has struggled to claim a win in recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 24 | DLLWD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Mirassol 1-5 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 16L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flamengo have won 12 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Flamengo 2-1 and beat Mirassol 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 9D 6L from the last 42 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMirassol4-2-3-1Confirmed
Flamengo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersMirassol2
Flamengo6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Klein has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Klein to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Flamengo 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
