Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against FC Cincinnati, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the league standings, boasting an impressive record of 13 wins, 4 draws, and just 2 losses from 19 matches. They have scored 39 goals while conceding only 15, resulting in a formidable goal difference of 24. This season, they have demonstrated strong home form, which will be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, FC Cincinnati is in 6th place, having accumulated 27 points from 19 games with 7 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses. They have a higher goals-for tally at 46, but their defensive record is concerning, having conceded 45 goals. This imbalance suggests that while they can score, they struggle to maintain a solid defensive structure, which could be exploited by Nashville's potent attack. The model gives Nashville a win probability of approximately 60%, highlighting their strong position and home advantage. However, a caveat is that if FC Cincinnati can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Nashville, they could pull off an upset. The full methodology of our prediction, based on expected goals and actual results across the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Nashville SC win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
| 1.73 | 4.20 | 3.94 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.77 | 4.35 | 4.15 | 1.44 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.69 | 3.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.41 | 2.80 | 1.43 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.53 | 2.52 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Cincinnati leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Nashville SC and FC Cincinnati shows a close competition, with FC Cincinnati winning 4 times, Nashville SC winning 3 times, and 3 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight and high-scoring games, highlighted by Nashville's 6-3 victory in a friendly and Cincinnati's recent 3-1 win. Draws have occurred frequently, suggesting that neither side has consistently dominated. The last win for Nashville came in May 2024, while Cincinnati has claimed more recent victories, indicating a competitive balance in their matchups.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 21 | 31 | 46 | WLWWL |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 40 | WLWDW |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 32 | DLLDW |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 23 | DLDLW |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNashville SC have won 13 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nashville SC 4-0 and beat Nashville SC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 8L from the last 38 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Cincinnati 5-0 and lost to Nashville SC 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 11L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNashville SC4-4-2Confirmed
FC Cincinnati3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
2 playersNashville SC2
FC Cincinnati
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Villarreal has averaged 5.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Nashville SC have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; FC Cincinnati 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
