New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs New York City FC
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win against New York City FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place in the standings, New England has amassed 30 points from their 18 matches, with a record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +5, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded, indicates a solid offensive performance, though their recent form shows some inconsistency with only one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, New York City FC occupies the fifth position with 26 points, having played the same number of matches but with a slightly less favorable record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. They have scored 31 goals and conceded 24, giving them a goal difference of +7. Their recent form, featuring three wins in their last five matches, suggests they are finding a rhythm, though they will need to continue this trend to challenge for a playoff spot. The model outputs a win probability of approximately 55% for New England Revolution and 25% for New York City FC. One key market percentage indicates that New England is favoured to win at home. A potential caveat for New England is their recent struggles to maintain form, which could allow New York to exploit any defensive lapses. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs New York City FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.60 | 2.78 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.21 | 3.54 | 2.97 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.28 | 3.66 | 3.10 | 1.76 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.28 | 3.55 | 2.85 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.72 | 2.15 | 1.59 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and New York City FC, New York City FC has won 5 times, while New England Revolution has secured 2 wins, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with New York City FC achieving both narrow (2-1, 1-0) and more comfortable victories (4-2, 2-0), while New England Revolution's wins have been by 2-0 and 3-0. The presence of three draws suggests competitive encounters, with the most recent match in 2025 resulting in a 2-0 victory for New England Revolution. Overall, New York City FC holds a stronger historical advantage in this fixture.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 8 | New York City FC | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 32 | WLDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New England Revolution 1-1 and lost to New England Revolution 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New York City FC have won 6 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 1-1 and drew with New England Revolution 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 13L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
New York City FC4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
15 playersNew England Revolution7
New York City FC8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Gonzales has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; New York City FC 2.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
