New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win against Orlando City SC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place in the standings, the Revolution have recorded 11 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses this season, accumulating 37 points. Their goal difference of +8 indicates a solid attacking performance, particularly when compared to their defensive record, which has conceded 29 goals. Despite a mixed recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses, they remain a competitive side in the playoff race. On the other hand, Orlando City SC is positioned eighth in the league with 28 points, having won 8, drawn 4, and lost 11 matches. Their season has been marked by a high number of goals conceded, 54 in total, leading to a goal difference of -16. While they have shown some resilience with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, their overall inconsistency could be a concern as they aim to climb the standings. The model gives New England a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is the goal total, as the model suggests an inclination towards a match with more than two goals. However, the Revolution's recent form raises questions about their ability to maintain consistency, especially if they struggle defensively. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.7% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 New England Revolution win as the most likely scoreline at 11.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 4.25 | 3.94 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 1.75 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.74 | 4.46 | 4.21 | 1.36 | 3.25 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 1.73 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.30 | 4.10 | 1.39 | 3.05 | 1.40 | 2.82 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.33 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Orlando City SC leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and Orlando City SC, Orlando City SC has won 6 times, while New England Revolution has secured 3 victories, with 1 match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being tightly contested, such as the 3-3 draw and the close 3-2 and 3-4 results. However, Orlando City's dominance is evident, particularly with three matches ending in a 3-0 or 3-1 win for them. New England Revolution last defeated Orlando City in August 2022, indicating a trend of recent struggles against this opponent.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Orlando City SC | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 34 | WWWDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New England Revolution 1-1 and lost to New England Revolution 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Orlando City SC have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 2-3 and drew with Minnesota United FC 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 16L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Orlando City SC4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersNew England Revolution3
Orlando City SC2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Boiko has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Boiko to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Orlando City SC 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
