New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New England currently sits in 4th place in the standings, with a record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses from 21 matches, accumulating 34 points. They have scored 33 goals while conceding 26, giving them a goal difference of +7. Despite a dip in form recently, where they have managed only one win in their last five matches, their overall season performance remains strong. In contrast, New York City FC is positioned 7th, with 27 points from 21 games (7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses). Their recent form has been concerning, with four losses and just one draw in their last five matches. This downturn has hindered their ability to capitalize on home advantage, and they will need to improve their scoring, having netted 35 goals but also conceded 30, resulting in a goal difference of +5. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for New England Revolution, while New York City FC sits at around 25%. One key market percentage suggests a 60% chance for New England to score at least two goals. However, a potential caveat is New England's recent struggles to find consistent form, which could allow New York City FC to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.66 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.62 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.56 | 3.64 | 2.71 | 1.73 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.62 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.33 | 3.45 | 2.80 | 1.66 | 2.16 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.52 | 3.60 | 2.65 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.69 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between New York City FC and New England Revolution, New York City FC has won 5 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw and New England Revolution winning 2. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some decisive victories, with New York City FC achieving narrow wins such as 1-0 and 2-1, while also recording a notable 4-2 win. The matches have featured a fair number of draws, and New England Revolution's last victory in this head-to-head occurred in September 2022, suggesting a recent advantage for New York City FC.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 8 | New York City FC | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 32 | WLDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New England Revolution 1-2 and drew with Nashville SC 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 13L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat New England Revolution 1-2 and beat New York City FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-3-3Confirmed
New England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersNew York City FC7
New England Revolution2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 2.1 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
