New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win this match against New York Red Bulls, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in seventh place, New York City FC has accumulated 29 points from 23 matches, with a record of seven wins, eight draws, and eight losses. Their goal difference of plus five indicates a stronger attacking performance compared to their defensive record. Despite a recent dip in form, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, they remain in contention for a playoff spot. On the other hand, New York Red Bulls are positioned tenth in the standings, with 27 points from the same number of matches. Their record of seven wins, six draws, and ten losses, coupled with a goal difference of minus 14, highlights significant defensive struggles throughout the season. They have not won in their last five matches, with two draws and three losses, which reflects a concerning trend as they fight to climb the table. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for New York City FC, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat exists in the form of NYCFC's recent form, which could lead to an unpredictable outcome. For more details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results to inform its predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
New York City FC have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New York City FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 3.82 | 3.70 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.88 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 1.54 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.77 | 3.71 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.75 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, New York City FC has won 6 times, with 1 draw and 3 victories for New York Red Bulls. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and more decisive outcomes, with New York City FC recording three wins by two-goal margins and one by three goals. However, New York Red Bulls have managed to secure two narrow 1-0 victories. The draw in 2023 suggests a competitive edge, but overall, New York City FC has had the upper hand historically in this fixture.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 8 | New York City FC | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 32 | WLDDD |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 30 | WLDLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New England Revolution 1-2 and drew with Nashville SC 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 13L from the last 35 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New York Red Bulls have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York Red Bulls 2-0 and drew with Seattle Sounders 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-2-3-1Confirmed
New York Red Bulls4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersNew York City FC6
New York Red Bulls2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Freemon has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 2.1 corners per match at home; New York Red Bulls 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York City FC have generated 1.33 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York City FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
