New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New York City FC currently sits in 8th place in the standings, with a record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses from 15 matches. They have scored 25 goals while conceding 21, resulting in a goal difference of +4. Recent form shows some improvement, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential upward trend. On the other hand, Toronto FC is struggling in 12th place, having managed only 3 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses through their first 15 matches. Their goal tally stands at 22, but they have conceded 29, leading to a goal difference of -7. Their recent form has been concerning, with four consecutive losses in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives New York City FC a win probability of approximately 58%, while Toronto FC's chances sit at about 18%. One key market percentage to watch is the over/under goals line, which could be influenced by both teams' scoring tendencies. However, a potential caveat for New York City FC is their inconsistency, which could lead to an unexpected result. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
New York City FC have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature New York City FC clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New York City FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.00 | 4.70 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.64 | 4.00 | 4.70 | 1.66 | 2.18 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.68 | 4.19 | 4.94 | 1.69 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.66 | 4.55 | 1.73 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.15 | 5.00 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.63 | 2.09 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between New York City FC and Toronto FC, New York City FC has won 7 times, while Toronto FC has secured 2 victories, with 1 match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for New York City FC to dominate, highlighted by several heavy wins, including a 5-0 and a 3-0 victory. Toronto FC's last win against New York City FC came in April 2023, suggesting a challenging period for them in this fixture. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a clear advantage for New York City FC.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 5 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 26 | DWWLD |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 17 | DLDDL |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santos Laguna 2-0 and drew with Toronto FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 10L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 1-1 and lost to DC United 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-1-4-1Confirmed
Toronto FC3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
16 playersNew York City FC9
Toronto FC7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Touchan has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 2.4 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York City FC have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York City FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
