New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. New York City FC currently sits in 8th place in the standings, with a record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses from 15 matches. They have scored 25 goals while conceding 21, resulting in a goal difference of +4. Recent form shows some improvement, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating a potential upward trend. On the other hand, Toronto FC is struggling in 12th place, having managed only 3 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses through their first 15 matches. Their goal tally stands at 22, but they have conceded 29, leading to a goal difference of -7. Their recent form has been concerning, with four consecutive losses in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives New York City FC a win probability of approximately 58%, while Toronto FC's chances sit at about 18%. One key market percentage to watch is the over/under goals line, which could be influenced by both teams' scoring tendencies. However, a potential caveat for New York City FC is their inconsistency, which could lead to an unexpected result. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
New York City FC have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature New York City FC clean sheets, in line with their 20% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. New York City FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.90 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.63 | 3.98 | 4.85 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.99 | 4.92 | 1.77 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.66 | 3.90 | 4.80 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 1.78 | 2.07 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 7-2)New York City FC hold the edge in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 2 Toronto FC wins. The record points to a tie New York City FC have controlled for years, though the draws show Toronto FC have at times kept it tight.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 32 | LWLWD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 11 | 22 | 39 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 32 | LWLLD |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 34 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 26 | LWWWL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 30 | WWWLL |
| 6 | New York City FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 22 | WLDWW |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 16 | DDLLL |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 17 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  Philadelphia Union | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 10 | WLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 14 | WLLWW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat New York City FC 3-0 and lost to New York City FC 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 10L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 0-0 and lost to Chicago Fire 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 9L from the last 23 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNew York City FC
No reported absences
Toronto FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New York City FC have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New York City FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
