New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against New York Red Bulls. Chicago currently sits in fourth place in the standings, showcasing a solid season with nine wins from 17 matches, alongside a respectable goal difference of +9. Their ability to score 32 goals while conceding only 23 indicates a well-rounded team, particularly in defence. In contrast, New York Red Bulls find themselves in eighth position with 25 points from 18 games. Their season has been a struggle, marked by a negative goal difference of -10, which reflects challenges both in attacking and defending. With seven wins against four draws and seven losses, their inconsistency has been evident, as highlighted by their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses over the last five matches. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 52% for Chicago Fire, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is New York's ability to exploit home advantage, which could complicate matters for Chicago. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.58 | 4.10 | 2.28 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| 2.46 | 3.84 | 2.47 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.30 | 3.14 | |
| 2.45 | 3.90 | 2.50 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 1.29 | 3.50 | |
| 2.52 | 4.04 | 2.57 | 1.36 | 3.29 | — | — | |
| 2.39 | 3.72 | 2.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.33 | 3.10 | |
| 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.30 | 3.40 | |
| 2.60 | 3.85 | 2.35 | 1.33 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 3.15 | |
| 2.63 | 4.00 | 2.15 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 3.15 | 1.31 | 3.25 |
Superbet | 2.57 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.33 | 3.15 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chicago Fire leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire stands at 2 wins for New York, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Chicago. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with Chicago having a slight edge. The matches have often been tightly contested, as evidenced by the frequency of draws and narrow victories; for instance, four of the last ten encounters ended in a draw or were decided by a single goal. Notably, Chicago has not lost to New York in their last three meetings, with their most recent match resulting in a 1-0 victory for Chicago.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 39 | LDDDD |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 30 | WLDLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New York Red Bulls 1-3 and drew with New York Red Bulls 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 4-4 and drew with Seattle Sounders 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 10L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersNew York Red Bulls2
Chicago Fire4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
