Nice vs Lorient Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nice vs Lorient
Match Preview
The model favours Nice to win this match against Lorient, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Nice enters the new season positioned 9th in the league, having finished last season with a solid form of three wins in their last five matches. While they have not played any matches yet this season, their recent performance indicates a potential for early momentum. On the other hand, Lorient is currently in 5th place, also with no matches played this season. Their recent form shows four wins in their last five matches, suggesting they could carry forward some positive energy. However, the challenge lies in maintaining that form against a competitive side like Nice. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Nice, with a score expectation of 2-1. One caveat is that both teams are entering the season without prior match experience this year, which can lead to unpredictability in performance. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Nice manage games at home, conceding just 1.23 goals per match. Lorient score 1.57 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.4% probability.
Nice have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Nice clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Nice are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nice vs Lorient| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.40 | 3.36 | 3.15 | 2.23 | 1.67 | 1.88 | 1.82 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.39 | 3.21 | 3.36 | 2.26 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 2.31 | 3.09 | 3.01 | 2.14 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.95 | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.44 | 3.42 | 3.20 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.84 | |
| 2.35 | 3.05 | 3.15 | 2.15 | 1.68 | 1.81 | 1.91 | |
| 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 2.37 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.11 | 1.62 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nice leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Nice and Lorient, Nice has won 3 times, Lorient has won 2, and there have been 5 draws. This record suggests a balanced rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws indicating tightly contested matches. The scorelines reflect a mix of outcomes, including a 3-3 draw and a 3-0 win for Nice, but also several low-scoring games such as two 1-1 draws. Lorient's last win in this matchup came in September 2021, highlighting a trend where Nice has been more successful in recent encounters.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 9 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | DWLD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 | Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNice have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Le Mans 1-1 and drew with Lorient 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 14D 10L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lorient have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lorient 0-1 and drew with Nice 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 8L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersNice6
Lorient1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Lissorgue has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Lissorgue to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nice have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Lorient 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nice have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nice player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
