Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours Orlando City SC to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Orlando currently sits in 9th place in the standings, with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses from 21 matches. Their goal difference of -17 highlights some defensive struggles, but they have managed to score 34 goals this season. In their last five matches, Orlando has secured only one win, indicating a need for improvement in consistency. Toronto FC, positioned just below Orlando in 10th place, also has 24 points but with a record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal difference of -6 suggests they have been more competitive defensively compared to Orlando. Toronto's recent form shows they have performed slightly better, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, which could give them confidence heading into this fixture. The model output indicates a win probability of around 55% for Orlando City SC, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that both teams have struggled with consistency this season, and an unexpected performance from Toronto could easily shift the match outcome. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Orlando City SC have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Orlando City SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.85 | |
| 1.84 | 4.10 | 3.52 | 1.35 | 2.76 | 1.38 | 2.76 | |
| 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.88 | 4.18 | 3.81 | 1.42 | 2.98 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.76 | 3.41 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.86 | 3.95 | 3.55 | 1.38 | 2.95 | 1.37 | 2.85 | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.91 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 1.44 | 2.92 | 1.40 | 2.82 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.60 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Orlando City SC leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Orlando City SC and Toronto FC, Orlando City SC has won 7 times, Toronto FC has won 2 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Orlando City to secure significant wins, with three matches ending in 4-0 and another in 4-2. Toronto FC's victories have been less frequent and often closely contested, with one of their wins being a narrow 2-1. The draw occurred in 2021, highlighting that recent encounters have largely favored Orlando. Toronto FC has not won against Orlando City since April 2024.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Orlando City SC | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 34 | WWWDW |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 29 | LWDDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOrlando City SC have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 1-0 and beat Orlando City SC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 16L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 3-0 and beat Inter Miami 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 11L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedOrlando City SC4-4-2Confirmed
Toronto FC4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersOrlando City SC3
Toronto FC5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Orlando City SC have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Orlando City SC have generated 2.00 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Orlando City SC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
