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Paide vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Tips & Odds

Paide vs Rapid Vienna

UEFA Europa Conference League3rd Qualifying Round
Paide
LWDWL
1 - 4
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee: D. Nikolic
Rapid Vienna
WWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 (implied 63.3%) for Over 2.5 Goals. Our experts calculate a 65.8% probability (an expert ratio of 1.52). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (65.8% vs 63.3%), driven by both sides' high goal output and tendency toward open games. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The model favours Rapid Vienna to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Rapid Vienna comes into this fixture in excellent form, having won all of their last five matches. This winning streak not only demonstrates their current momentum but also highlights their ability to consistently convert scoring opportunities, which is crucial in a knockout competition like the UEFA Europa Conference League. On the other hand, Paide has shown mixed results in their recent matches, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. While they have managed to secure some points, their inconsistent form could hinder their chances against a side like Rapid Vienna, who are on a roll. Paide will need to step up significantly to match the intensity and effectiveness of their opponents. The model outputs a win probability favouring Rapid Vienna, with a projected score of 2-0. A key market percentage indicates a strong likelihood of a Vienna victory. However, a potential caveat is that if Paide can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Rapid Vienna, they could make the match more competitive than anticipated. For a full breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Paide Win21%15.10
Draw16%6.17
Rapid Vienna Win63%1.17
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: No
1.5152.1%

Paide have kept a clean sheet in 27% of matches. Rapid Vienna average 1.8 goals per game.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.5859.0%

Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Paide 0-2 Rapid Vienna
5.2819.0%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.0% probability.

Asian Handicap
Rapid Vienna -0.0
1.0657%

Rapid Vienna have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
0-2
5.28
19.0%
0-3
6.16
16.3%
0-1
6.28
16.1%
1-2
8.83
11.5%
0-4
9.25
10.9%
1-3
10.43
9.8%

Our model projects a 0-2 Rapid Vienna win as the most likely scoreline at 19.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Paide
-0.0
9.65
Rapid Vienna
+0.0
1.06
Paide
-0.5
8.38
Rapid Vienna
+0.5
1.19
Paide
-1.5
13.00
Rapid Vienna
+1.5
1.62

Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Rapid Vienna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Paide vs Rapid Vienna
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
10Bet
17.505.701.171.622.202.401.45
Marathonbet
18.006.451.151.532.212.431.48
Betfair
13.006.001.141.572.252.301.57
Pinnacle
13.596.401.131.522.28
SBO
8.685.221.17
William Hill
17.006.001.182.501.50
Bet365
15.005.751.201.652.202.381.53
1xBet
20.007.441.171.622.352.461.48
Unibet
13.005.601.221.502.352.061.66
888Sport
17.006.001.181.602.252.501.50
Betano
15.506.101.191.622.252.501.47
Superbet
13.006.501.181.592.222.451.49
BetVictor
15.007.001.171.552.252.301.53

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
Over 1.5 Goals
79.2%
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
Over 3.5 Goals
38.3%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XPaide or Draw
37%4.41
12Paide or Rapid Vienna
84%1.10
X2Draw or Rapid Vienna
79%1.02

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Rapid Vienna leads 1-0)
0 Paide0 Draw1 Rapid Vienna
06 Aug
Paide
0-1
Rapid Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League

In the single match played between Paide and Rapid Vienna, the head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Paide and 1 win for Rapid Vienna. The only encounter ended with a narrow score of 0-1 in favor of Rapid Vienna, indicating a tightly contested match. As it is the only fixture recorded, there is no trend to assess, but the result shows that Paide has yet to secure a victory against Rapid Vienna.

Key Statistics

2026 Season
PaideRapid Vienna
1.73Goals p.g.1.79
1.38Goals conceded p.g.1.24
27%Clean sheets27%
49%Win rate55%
3.11Avg goals in match3.03
xG per game0.90
xGA per game0.05
26%Possession %60%
2.0Shots on target / game4.2
4.0Corners per game4.7
Paide
Recent Form

Paide have won 14 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Rapid Vienna 1-4 and beat Kuressaare 1-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 10L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: PaideAll competitions
06 Aug
Paide
1-4
Rapid Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League
02 Aug
Paide
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
30 Jul
Zira
1-1
Paide
UEFA Europa Conference League
23 Jul
Paide
1-0
Zira
UEFA Europa Conference League
19 Jul
Laagri
5-2
Paide
Meistriliiga
16 Jul
Paide
3-0
Hegelmann Litauen
UEFA Europa Conference League
18
Win
49%
9
Draw
24%
10
Lost
27%
Rapid Vienna
Recent Form

Rapid Vienna have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rapid Vienna 1-2 and beat Paide 1-4.

Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 9L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Rapid ViennaAll competitions
09 Aug
Ried
1-2
Rapid Vienna
Bundesliga
06 Aug
Paide
1-4
Rapid Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League
02 Aug
Rapid Vienna
1-0
SCR Altach
Bundesliga
29 Jul
Rapid Vienna
6-2
FC Santa Coloma
UEFA Europa Conference League
26 Jul
Wienerberg
0-3
Rapid Vienna
Cup
23 Jul
FC Santa Coloma
1-3
Rapid Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League
18
Win
55%
6
Draw
18%
9
Lost
27%

Lineups

Confirmed

Paide4-3-3Confirmed

2Michael LilanderDEF
7Edgar TurDEF
3Victor HugoDEF
27Nikita BaranovDEF
30Abdourahman BadamosiFWD
77Daniel LutsFWD
11Pa Modou SohnaFWD
99Ebrima JarjuGK
6Daniel CabralMID
28Oskar HoimMID
10Martin MillerMID
15Hindrek OjamaaDEF
4Pedro Andrade DrozinaDEF
44Kristofer KaitDEF
9Henri AnierFWD
20Kristofer PihtFWD
12Marko MeeritsGK
56Mattias SappGK
17Pa Abdou ChamMID
21Ramon SmirnovMID
8Henrik OjamaaMID
14Momodou JobartehMID
16Aleksandr ŠurõginMID

Rapid Vienna4-4-2Confirmed

77Bendegúz BollaDEF
23Jonas AuerDEF
6Serge-Philippe Raux-YaoDEF
55Nenad CvetkovićDEF
8Tonni AdamsenFWD
15Nikolaus WurmbrandFWD
1Niklas HedlGK
17Tobias Fjeld GulliksenMID
18Matthias SeidlMID
21Louis SchaubMID
7Marco TilioMID
47Amin GröllerDEF
38Jannes HornDEF
61Furkan DemirDEF
4Jakob SchöllerDEF
2Eaden RokaDEF
22Yusuf DemirFWD
43Moulaye HaïdaraFWD
9Ercan KaraFWD
10Petter Nosakhare DahlFWD
25Paul GartlerGK
51Benjamin GöschlGK
30Nicolas BajliczMID

Unavailable Players

0 players

Paide

No reported absences

Rapid Vienna

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Rapid Vienna Win1.17 (63.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.58 (59%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.26 (41%)
Both Teams Score2.39 (47.9%)
BTTS No1.51 (52.1%)
Speculative
Paide Win15.10 (21%)
Draw6.17 (15.7%)

Yellow Card Prediction

D. Nikolic has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.

Corner Prediction

Paide have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Rapid Vienna 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Rapid Vienna have generated 0.90 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rapid Vienna player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
2.5 Goals Over

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.