Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against the Portland Timbers. St. Louis currently sits in 6th place in the standings with 33 points from 21 matches, showcasing a solid season with 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses. They have a positive goal difference of 3, having scored 30 goals while conceding 27. Their recent form has been impressive, going unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes three wins and two draws. On the other hand, the Portland Timbers find themselves in 9th place, having garnered 28 points from 21 games. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses reflects a challenging season thus far, with a goal difference of just 1. While they have shown flashes of potential, their recent form has been less consistent, registering only two wins in their last five matches, alongside one draw and two losses. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 45% for St. Louis City, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is that St. Louis is likely favoured in the betting markets due to their current form and league position. However, a potential caveat is the inherent unpredictability of matchday conditions, which could affect the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Portland Timbers have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Portland Timbers are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.90 | 2.66 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 2.80 | |
| 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.51 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 3.10 | |
| 2.53 | 4.01 | 2.57 | 1.43 | 2.93 | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.61 | 2.49 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.38 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.85 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.39 | 2.85 |
Superbet | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.82 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (St. Louis City leads 3-2)In the last nine matches between Portland Timbers and St. Louis City, the record stands at 2 wins for Portland, 2 draws, and 3 wins for St. Louis. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close encounters, including a notable 4-4 draw. Both teams have experienced narrow victories, as seen in the 2-1 results on multiple occasions. St. Louis City's last victory over Portland was in March 2023, suggesting a relatively balanced matchup, although St. Louis has had the upper hand recently with three wins in the last five encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 41 | WDWDW |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 | LDWLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPortland Timbers have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Portland Timbers 2-2 and beat Portland Timbers 5-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 14L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
St. Louis City have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with St. Louis City 2-2 and beat Vancouver Whitecaps 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 8L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPortland Timbers4-3-3Confirmed
St. Louis City3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersPortland Timbers5
St. Louis City7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Portland Timbers have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; St. Louis City 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Portland Timbers have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Portland Timbers player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
