Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Tips & Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
Match Preview
The model favours Red Bull Salzburg to win against Sturm Graz, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Currently positioned second in the league, Salzburg has had an impressive start to the season, securing four wins and one draw from their opening five matches. They have scored 14 goals while conceding only three, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of 11. Their current form is strong, having won all last five matches, which demonstrates their offensive prowess and defensive stability. In contrast, Sturm Graz sits in fourth place with a record of two wins, two draws, and one loss from the same number of matches. They have scored six goals and conceded five, giving them a goal difference of just one. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a formidable opponent in Salzburg. The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a high win probability, reflecting their strong season performance and current form. Although they are favoured to win, a potential caveat is that an early goal from Sturm Graz could shift momentum and create pressure on Salzburg's defence. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines our in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.0% probability.
Red Bull Salzburg have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg win as the most likely scoreline at 12.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Red Bull Salzburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 4.45 | 4.90 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.61 | 4.66 | 4.94 | 1.40 | 3.08 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 4.21 | 4.29 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.57 | 4.45 | 4.82 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.45 | 4.70 | 1.38 | 2.87 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.60 | 4.80 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 5-1)In the last ten matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz, the record shows Red Bull Salzburg winning 1, drawing 4, and Sturm Graz winning 5. This indicates a slight advantage for Sturm Graz, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure multiple victories. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in draws or narrow margins, such as a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 win for Sturm Graz. Notably, Sturm Graz's last win was a decisive 5-0 victory, suggesting they have had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lask Linz | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rapid Vienna | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 11 | WLDWW |
| 5 |  WSG Wattens | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | DWWLL |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 10 |  Ried | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 11 |  Austria Lustenau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | LLDWL |
| 12 |  SCR Altach | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | LLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRed Bull Salzburg have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 and beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 7D 11L from the last 38 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sturm Graz have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Voitsberg 1-4 and lost to Rapid Vienna 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 13D 7L from the last 39 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRed Bull Salzburg
No reported absences
Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Isa Simsek has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Isa Simsek to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Red Bull Salzburg have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Sturm Graz 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Red Bull Salzburg have generated 2.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Red Bull Salzburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
