Saburtalo vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Saburtalo vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Saburtalo, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn has shown stronger form recently, winning three of their last five matches, including two consecutive victories. This trend suggests they are gaining momentum as they approach this crucial qualifying match. Saburtalo has had a mixed bag in their last five fixtures, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss. While they have been competitive, their inconsistency could be a concern as they face a team in better form. The ability to convert opportunities into goals will be critical for Saburtalo if they hope to challenge Flora Tallinn effectively. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Flora Tallinn, with the projected score suggesting they will edge out Saburtalo. However, an honest caveat is that if Saburtalo can leverage home advantage and exploit any defensive lapses from Flora Tallinn, the outcome could differ from the prediction. The full method behind this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, detailing our in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Saburtalo have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Saburtalo win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Saburtalo clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Saburtalo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Saburtalo vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.54 | 4.20 | 4.90 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.25 | |
| 1.53 | 4.45 | 5.15 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 1.47 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.52 | 4.68 | 4.82 | 1.47 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 1.48 | 3.91 | 4.61 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.55 | 4.45 | 5.05 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 1.58 | 4.10 | 4.90 | 1.56 | 2.25 | 1.61 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.40 | 4.90 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 1.55 | 4.30 | 4.85 | 1.52 | 2.37 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Saburtalo leads 1-0)Saburtalo leads the head-to-head record with 1 win and 0 draws against Flora Tallinn. The only match between these two teams ended with a narrow victory for Saburtalo, who won 2-1 in the UEFA Champions League. This result indicates a competitive fixture, with both teams managing to score, but ultimately, Saburtalo emerged as the stronger side. Flora Tallinn has yet to secure a win in this matchup, and it remains to be seen how they will respond in any future encounters.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSaburtalo have won 4 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Flora Tallinn 2-2 and drew with Torpedo Kutaisi 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 3L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Saburtalo 2-2 and beat Kuressaare 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 2D 10L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSaburtalo4-3-3Confirmed
Flora Tallinn4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSaburtalo
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Lata has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Lata to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Saburtalo average 1.4 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Saburtalo have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. They put 0.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Saburtalo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
