Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe
Match Preview
The model favours Fenerbahçe to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Samsunspor. Despite both teams starting the season with limited results, Fenerbahçe's recent form suggests they are better positioned to claim victory. They enter this match having played one game, although they lost, they scored one goal and have shown a solid offensive capability in their last five matches with three wins. On the other hand, Samsunspor begins their campaign with no points from their first match. Their last five matches indicate a mixed form with two wins, one draw, and two losses, but they have not yet played in the current season. This could mean they are still finding their rhythm, which may affect their performance against a more experienced opponent like Fenerbahçe. The model output indicates a win probability of 60% for Fenerbahçe, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat exists as Fenerbahçe's defensive issues could allow Samsunspor to exploit any lapses, especially if they manage to find their form quickly. Details of the full method can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Fenerbahçe have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Fenerbahçe win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Fenerbahçe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.25 | 4.10 | 1.58 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 5.25 | 4.15 | 1.56 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 5.61 | 4.27 | 1.60 | 1.73 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 4.84 | 3.86 | 1.56 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 5.25 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 5.46 | 4.32 | 1.62 | 1.74 | 2.19 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
| 5.75 | 4.40 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.66 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 5.50 | 4.25 | 1.65 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 5.25 | 4.15 | 1.58 | 1.70 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fenerbahçe leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe, Fenerbahçe has won 4 times, Samsunspor has won once, and there have been 5 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, showcasing tight contests. Notably, there have been low-scoring games, with four of the matches finishing 0-0 or 1-1. Fenerbahçe's victories include a 3-0 win, indicating they can achieve heavy wins, while Samsunspor's only victory came back in 2012. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a balanced matchup with a slight edge for Fenerbahçe.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | WWWD |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWLW |
| 3 |  Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | WWWL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WLWD |
| 5 |  Amed | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | LDWW |
| 7 | Fenerbahçe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | LWWL |
| 13 | Samsunspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | LLWD |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLL |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSamsunspor have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Samsunspor 0-2 and beat Samsunspor 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 10L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fenerbahçe have won 10 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Samsunspor 0-2 and beat Lyon 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 6D 5L from the last 31 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSamsunspor4-2-3-1Confirmed
Fenerbahçe4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
14 playersSamsunspor8
Fenerbahçe6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Y. Kol has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Samsunspor have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Fenerbahçe 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fenerbahçe have generated 1.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fenerbahçe player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
