San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match Preview
The model favours San Diego to win against San Jose Earthquakes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. San Diego currently sits in 11th place in the standings with 27 points from 21 matches, having won four of their last five fixtures. Their recent form shows a significant turnaround, with a total of seven wins this season, indicating a growing confidence and ability to convert chances into goals, as evidenced by their goal difference of +5. In contrast, San Jose Earthquakes are positioned 4th in the league with 33 points, but their form has sharply declined, failing to win in their last five matches, which includes four losses. This downturn in performance could be a concern for them, as they struggle to maintain consistency despite a relatively strong start to the season with ten victories. The model gives San Diego a strong chance of victory, reflecting their recent resurgence. However, there is a caveat; if San Jose can find a way to break their losing streak and regain their early-season form, they could pose a significant threat. The full methodology of our predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
San Diego have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 San Diego win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. San Diego are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.38 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.73 | 4.15 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 2.80 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.79 | 4.35 | 4.07 | 1.40 | 3.04 | — | — | |
| 1.74 | 3.92 | 3.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.74 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 2.95 | 1.41 | 2.70 | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 4.35 | 4.05 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
Superbet | 1.78 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.41 | 2.77 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes stands at two wins for each side with no draws in their last four matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with two matches ending in a one-goal margin and two featuring more decisive victories, including a 3-0 win for San Jose and a 2-0 win for San Diego. This suggests that while the overall record is balanced, the matches have shown moments of dominance by both teams. The last victory for San Jose came more recently in September 2025, while San Diego last won in early 2026.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 | LLLWW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Diego have won 13 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to San Jose Earthquakes 2-3 and beat Los Angeles Galaxy 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 14L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat San Diego 2-3 and drew with Austin 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 9L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Diego4-3-3Confirmed
San Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersSan Diego2
San Jose Earthquakes6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Diego have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; San Jose Earthquakes 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Diego have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Diego player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
