San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Match Preview
The model favours Houston Dynamo to win against San Jose Earthquakes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Houston currently sits in second place in the standings, showcasing a solid season with 12 wins from 22 matches. Their goal difference of +4 reflects a balanced attack and a relatively strong defence, allowing them to accumulate 39 points. Despite a recent dip in form with one loss in their last five matches, they have secured three victories, indicating resilience. On the other hand, San Jose Earthquakes are positioned fourth, with 10 wins but a troubling recent form of just one draw and four losses in their last five matches. Their overall goal difference of +6 suggests they can score, but their recent struggles have raised concerns about their consistency. They have not managed to secure a win in their last five outings, which could impact their confidence heading into this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Houston Dynamo. While they are favoured to win, the Earthquakes could pose a challenge if they manage to turn around their recent form. The full methodology of our prediction involves an in-house model evaluating expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.64 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.35 | 3.58 | 2.72 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.44 | 3.51 | 2.96 | 1.76 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.34 | 2.68 | 1.63 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.48 | 3.65 | 2.55 | 1.54 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.65 | 2.06 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Houston Dynamo leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo, Houston Dynamo leads with 6 wins, while San Jose has 2 wins and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided encounters, with Houston achieving notable victories, including a 4-1 win and a 4-3 match. The tightest match was a 3-3 draw, showcasing that San Jose can compete, though they have struggled historically, with their last win against Houston occurring in April 2023. Overall, Houston's dominance is clear in this head-to-head record.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 and lost to Minnesota United FC 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Houston Dynamo have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Houston Dynamo 1-0 and drew with Charlotte 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 8L from the last 36 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Jose Earthquakes3-4-2-1Confirmed
Houston Dynamo5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersSan Jose Earthquakes8
Houston Dynamo3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Houston Dynamo 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
