San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC
Match Preview
The model favours Los Angeles FC to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against the San Jose Earthquakes. Los Angeles currently sits third in the standings, having played 24 matches with a record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal difference of +14 highlights a solid defensive record, conceding only 24 goals this season. Although their recent form shows no wins in the last five matches, they have managed three draws, indicating they can still secure points even when not performing at their best. In contrast, the San Jose Earthquakes occupy the sixth position with 10 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses from 23 matches played. They have scored 40 goals, which is respectable, but their goal difference of +6 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 34 goals. Their recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, including three losses. This trend may impact their confidence as they face a higher-ranked opponent. The model gives Los Angeles FC a win probability of approximately 55%, while the Earthquakes’ chances sit around 25%. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of a draw, which is estimated at 20%. A potential caveat for Los Angeles could be their struggle to convert draws into wins, particularly against a San Jose side that has shown resilience at home. The full method of our predictions is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.05 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 3.17 | 4.07 | 2.11 | 1.48 | 2.73 | — | — | |
| 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.11 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.30 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.75 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.65 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.05 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Los Angeles FC leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC, Los Angeles FC has won 5 times, San Jose Earthquakes has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Los Angeles FC to secure narrow victories, with three of their wins being by just a one-goal margin. However, they also recorded some heavy wins, including a 6-2 victory. San Jose Earthquakes’ last win against Los Angeles FC was in May 2024, highlighting a recent struggle against this opponent. Overall, the record suggests that Los Angeles FC has had the upper hand in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 40 | LWDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 and lost to Minnesota United FC 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Los Angeles FC have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Los Angeles FC 3-1 and drew with Real Salt Lake 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 13D 7L from the last 39 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Jose Earthquakes3-4-2-1Confirmed
Los Angeles FC4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersSan Jose Earthquakes6
Los Angeles FC3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Fischer has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Los Angeles FC 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
