San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers
Match Preview
The model favours the San Jose Earthquakes for this matchup, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against the Portland Timbers. San Jose currently sits in 4th place in the league standings with 41 points from 25 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid home record, and they have scored 44 goals while conceding 36. Recent form shows that they are competitive, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. On the other hand, the Portland Timbers are positioned 8th in the league with 32 points, having played the same number of matches. Their season has been inconsistent, reflected in their goal difference of zero, with 47 goals scored and 47 conceded. The Timbers have struggled recently, managing only one win in their last five matches, which includes two draws and two losses, indicating they may be lacking in confidence heading into this fixture. The model output suggests a win probability of 58% for San Jose, with a projected score of 2-1 and a key market percentage of 60% for San Jose to win. However, a potential caveat is that if Portland can find their attacking rhythm, they could exploit any defensive lapses from San Jose. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.9% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 11.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.92 | 3.84 | 3.40 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
| 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.90 | 3.45 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (San Jose Earthquakes leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers, San Jose has won 5 times, Portland has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with a mix of narrow wins and a few higher-scoring matches. Notably, San Jose recorded a significant 4-1 victory, while the matches have often been closely contested, with several games decided by a single goal. The recent head-to-head results show that both teams have had their moments of success, contributing to a balanced and engaging matchup history.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 | LDWLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 1-0 and lost to Minnesota United FC 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Portland Timbers have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Portland Timbers 2-1 and drew with Los Angeles FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 14L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Jose Earthquakes
No reported absences
Portland Timbers
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Portland Timbers 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
