San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors
Match Preview
The model favours Boca Juniors to win against San Lorenzo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Boca Juniors currently sits in second place in the Liga Profesional, having accumulated 30 points from 16 matches. Their season has been marked by a strong defensive record, with only 9 goals conceded, contributing to a goal difference of +13. Boca's form has been steady, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating resilience and consistency. On the other hand, San Lorenzo is positioned seventh in the league, with 22 points from 16 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses reflects a struggle to convert draws into victories, as they have scored 14 goals while also conceding 14. San Lorenzo's recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, highlighting a lack of momentum as they approach this crucial fixture. According to the model, Boca Juniors has a strong win probability, given their superior position and form. However, a potential caveat is that San Lorenzo could exploit any defensive lapses from Boca, especially considering their home advantage. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
San Lorenzo have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Boca Juniors average 1.4 goals per game.
San Lorenzo manage games at home, conceding just 0.77 goals per match. Boca Juniors score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.7% probability.
Boca Juniors have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Boca Juniors win as the most likely scoreline at 18.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Boca Juniors are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.95 | 3.08 | 2.01 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.14 | 1.62 | |
| 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.05 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 4.13 | 3.20 | 2.06 | 2.66 | 1.50 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 2.76 | 2.06 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.05 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 4.20 | 3.00 | 2.05 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 4.04 | 3.14 | 2.05 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.14 | 1.63 | |
Betano | 4.00 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.65 | 1.50 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 2.41 | 1.48 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Boca Juniors leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors stands at 3 wins for San Lorenzo, 2 draws, and 4 wins for Boca Juniors over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with several close matches; six of the ten fixtures ended with a margin of one goal. There have been two draws, both at 1-1, while Boca Juniors has achieved two heavier victories, winning 3-0 and 3-2. San Lorenzo's last victory against Boca Juniors was in 2023, suggesting that both teams have shared successes in recent encounters.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | WLWDL |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | WLDLW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWDDD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DDWDL |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDDWW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLDDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Lorenzo have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat San Lorenzo 1-0 and beat San Lorenzo 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 16D 9L from the last 35 games (29% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Boca Juniors have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Boca Juniors 2-2 and drew with Velez Sarsfield 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 11D 8L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Boca Juniors
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
N. Arasa has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
San Lorenzo have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Boca Juniors 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Boca Juniors have generated 1.71 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Boca Juniors player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
