Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match against Santos Laguna, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Santos Laguna sits at the bottom of the standings in 17th place, having lost all three of their opening matches this season. They have scored just two goals while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -5. Their recent form has also been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, indicating struggles both offensively and defensively. Guadalajara Chivas, on the other hand, is positioned 12th in the league with four points from three matches, having secured one win, one draw, and one loss. They have managed to score two goals while allowing three, giving them a goal difference of -1. Their recent form shows a slight improvement, with one win and two draws in their last five matches, suggesting they are more competitive than Santos Laguna at this point in the season. The model gives Guadalajara Chivas a win probability of 58.3%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that if Santos Laguna can find a way to improve their performance at home, they could potentially upset the prediction. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates matches through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.40 | 4.45 | 1.52 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 2.26 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 5.65 | 4.65 | 1.55 | 1.59 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 5.22 | 4.18 | 1.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 5.54 | 4.33 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 2.26 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
| 5.40 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 5.90 | 4.55 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Santos Laguna and Guadalajara Chivas, Guadalajara Chivas leads with 6 wins, while Santos Laguna has won 2 times and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Guadalajara Chivas to secure decisive victories, as evidenced by their 3-0 and 4-0 wins. Matches have often been competitive, with 4 fixtures ending in a single-goal margin. However, Santos Laguna's last victory over Guadalajara Chivas came in 2023, suggesting they have struggled to maintain consistent success against them in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 3 |  Club Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | WDWW |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 9 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | WWWLL |
| 6 |  Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | WLWW |
| 10 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | WDWL |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos Laguna have won 2 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Santos Laguna 0-1 and lost to Santos Laguna 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 16L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 and beat Seattle Sounders 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 7L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSantos Laguna4-3-1-2Confirmed
Guadalajara Chivas3-1-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSantos Laguna
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Arce has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Arce to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Santos Laguna have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 8.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
