Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win this match against Sporting Kansas City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St. Louis currently sits in 7th place in the standings with a solid record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses from 18 matches. Their balanced goal difference of zero, along with scoring 24 goals while conceding the same number, suggests a competitive team that has found a rhythm, particularly evident in their recent form where they have secured four wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Sporting Kansas City is struggling at 15th place with just 4 wins from 18 matches, resulting in a total of 14 points. Their defensive woes are highlighted by a goal difference of -28, having conceded 46 goals while managing to score only 18. Their recent form shows one win in their last five matches, indicating ongoing challenges that question their ability to turn the season around. According to the model, St. Louis City has a 46.6% chance of winning, while Sporting Kansas City’s chances stand at 29.3%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is projected at 63.3%, and both teams to score sits at 64.1%. However, a potential caveat for St. Louis City could be complacency, as they face a team struggling this season. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.70 | 3.85 | 1.84 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.84 | 3.85 | 1.81 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 4.02 | 4.09 | 1.85 | 1.58 | 2.47 | — | — | |
| 3.67 | 3.71 | 1.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.60 | 3.85 | 1.86 | 1.47 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 3.80 | 3.85 | 1.90 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Superbet | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.88 | 1.56 | 2.45 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sporting Kansas City leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City, Sporting Kansas City has won 4 times, St. Louis City has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and multiple games featuring narrow victories. Notably, the games have shown a mix of low and high-scoring outcomes, with a few high-scoring matches such as St. Louis City's 4-1 win in October 2023 and Sporting's 4-1 win in the same year. The closest match was a 2-2 draw in May 2025, highlighting the potential for tightly contested encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 15 | 24 | 43 | WDLWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 37 | WDDLW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 46 | 36 | 10 | 38 | LDWWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 35 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 32 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 34 | LDWWW |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 17 | DDLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 48 | -30 | 14 | LLLWL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 15 | WLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSporting Kansas City have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Sporting Kansas City 0-2 and beat Sporting Kansas City 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 17L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
St. Louis City have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat St. Louis City 1-3 and beat Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 8L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSporting Kansas City4-4-2Confirmed
St. Louis City3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersSporting Kansas City5
St. Louis City3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Rivas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Rivas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sporting Kansas City have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; St. Louis City 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
