St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Louis City vs FC Dallas
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win this match against FC Dallas, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St. Louis is currently positioned 5th in the league standings with 29 points from 19 matches, showcasing a strong recent form with four wins and a draw in their last five games. Their goal difference of +2 reflects a balanced attack and solid defence, indicating their ability to both score and limit opponents. On the other hand, FC Dallas sits in 7th place with 27 points from 18 matches. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. While they have a higher goal total of 32, their goal difference of +7 suggests they are more reliant on offensive output, which can be a double-edged sword against a team like St. Louis that is performing well defensively. The model gives St. Louis a win probability that leans in their favour, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of St. Louis securing at least a draw. However, a potential pitfall for St. Louis could be complacency, especially if they underestimate Dallas's attacking capabilities. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Louis City vs FC Dallas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.75 | 3.35 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.99 | 3.58 | 3.44 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.08 | 3.73 | 3.50 | 1.68 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.46 | 3.29 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.94 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.56 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 1.62 | 2.32 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (FC Dallas leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between St. Louis City and FC Dallas stands at 2 wins for St. Louis City, 3 draws, and 3 wins for FC Dallas over their last 8 matches. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws and several narrow victories. Notably, the highest margin was a 3-0 win for FC Dallas, while St. Louis City achieved their wins by just one goal on two occasions. The last win for St. Louis City came in 2023, while FC Dallas has secured victories more recently, suggesting a balanced yet slightly favorable dynamic for FC Dallas in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 41 | WDWDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Louis City have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with St. Louis City 3-3 and beat St. Louis City 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 8L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Dallas have won 10 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Minnesota United FC 1-2 and drew with St. Louis City 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 8L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSt. Louis City3-4-2-1Confirmed
FC Dallas3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersSt. Louis City6
FC Dallas3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Marrufo has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
St. Louis City have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; FC Dallas 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
