Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win against Grazer AK, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sturm Graz currently sits in fourth place in the league, having accumulated 11 points from their first seven matches. Their season has been marked by a balanced performance, with three wins, two draws, and two losses. Their goal difference of -1 indicates some defensive vulnerabilities, but they have shown resilience, especially with three wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Grazer AK is positioned ninth in the standings with 8 points, having recorded two wins, two draws, and three losses. Their goal-scoring has been a concern, with just 6 goals scored and a significant 16 goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -10. Despite this, Grazer AK is currently in better form, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, suggesting they could pose a challenge to Sturm Graz. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Sturm Graz, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their stronger season performance so far. However, a caveat exists: if Grazer AK continues their recent unbeaten streak, they could exploit any defensive lapses from Sturm Graz. The full prediction method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sturm Graz clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.78 | 3.72 | 4.10 | 1.67 | 2.13 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.84 | 4.03 | 1.69 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.54 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.80 | 3.72 | 4.08 | 1.67 | 2.13 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.55 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.64 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 6-0)Sturm Graz holds a perfect head-to-head record against Grazer AK, winning all 6 of their last encounters without any draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and dominance, with three matches decided by a single goal and three featuring larger margins, including a 5-2 victory. Grazer AK has not managed to secure a win against Sturm Graz in these fixtures, highlighting a significant one-sided trend. The most recent match was a close 2-1, suggesting that while Sturm Graz has been dominant, there have been moments where Grazer AK has been competitive.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 16 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 18 | DWDWW |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 14 | WLWLD |
| 5 |  Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 | DDWDL |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 12 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sturm Graz 3-1 and drew with Sturm Graz 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 13D 8L from the last 41 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Grazer AK have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kalsdorf 1-5 and beat Kitzbühel 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 12L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Grazer AK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Julian Weinberger has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 6.9 corners per match at home; Grazer AK 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
