The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against The New Saints. Flora Tallinn has shown slightly better form recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This level of performance suggests they are more capable of securing a positive result as they navigate the pressures of the UEFA Europa Conference League. The New Saints have also recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a similar trend in form. However, their recent results may reflect a struggle to maintain consistency, which could be detrimental in a competitive match against a team like Flora Tallinn. The ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity will be crucial for them. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Flora Tallinn, while The New Saints have a 25% chance of winning, with the remaining probability accounting for a draw. One key market statistic to note is the expected goals, which could sway the outcome based on conversion rates. A potential caveat for Flora Tallinn is their recent inconsistency, which could allow The New Saints to capitalize if they can find their rhythm. For a comprehensive understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
The New Saints have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature The New Saints clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. The New Saints are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
The New Saints vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.88 | 3.47 | 3.65 | 1.71 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.04 | 3.13 | 1.78 | 2.00 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.94 | 3.73 | 3.88 | 1.77 | 2.10 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.72 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 1.91 | 3.65 | 3.55 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.74 | 1.97 | 1.66 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 1-0)In their only past meeting, Flora Tallinn has a win over The New Saints, with a scoreline of 1-0. This narrow defeat suggests a tightly contested match, with The New Saints unable to score. The lack of previous encounters indicates limited historical context, but the result shows that Flora Tallinn has had the upper hand in this instance. As it stands, The New Saints will be looking to overturn this result in any future fixtures.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonThe New Saints have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to The New Saints 1-2 and beat The New Saints 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 1D 5L from the last 15 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Saburtalo 2-2 and beat Kuressaare 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 2D 10L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersThe New Saints
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Spasjonnikovs has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by V. Spasjonnikovs to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
The New Saints average 1.7 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
The New Saints have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 60% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. The New Saints player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
