Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the league standings with 49 points from 21 matches, showcasing their strong form this season. They have recorded 15 wins, which is a testament to their attacking prowess, having scored 43 goals while conceding only 17, leading to an impressive goal difference of +26. In contrast, Toronto FC is positioned at 10th in the standings, with 24 points from their 21 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses indicates a struggle to find consistent form. While they have managed to score 31 goals, their defense has been leaky, allowing 37 goals this season, resulting in a negative goal difference of -6. Their recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss suggests they are improving but still face significant challenges against top-tier teams. The model gives Nashville a high win probability, reflecting their dominant season performance. However, Toronto could pose a threat if they manage to capitalize on set pieces or counter-attacks. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.12 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.40 | 3.54 | 2.02 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.52 | 3.73 | 2.08 | 1.77 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.17 | 3.26 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.02 | 1.66 | 2.17 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.02 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.12 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.61 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nashville SC leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Toronto FC and Nashville SC, Nashville has won 4 times, Toronto has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested, as evidenced by the 1-1 and 2-1 results. However, Nashville's victories have included a 2-0 win and a 1-0 win, suggesting they have managed to secure some narrow wins. The most recent match resulted in a 1-0 win for Nashville, highlighting their recent dominance in this fixture. Overall, the record shows a slight edge for Nashville SC in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 29 | LWDDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Toronto FC 2-1 and drew with Toronto FC 4-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 11L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nashville SC have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Nashville SC 2-2 and lost to Toronto FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 8L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedToronto FC4-4-2Confirmed
Nashville SC4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersToronto FC6
Nashville SC1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Nashville SC 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
