Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toulouse vs Le Havre
Match Preview
The model favours Toulouse to win this match against Le Havre, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Both teams are struggling at the start of the season, with Toulouse currently sitting in 17th place and Le Havre just above them in 16th. Toulouse has managed to secure just one point from three matches, scoring two goals while conceding five, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. Le Havre is in a similar predicament, also with one point from three games. They have scored two goals but have conceded four, giving them a goal difference of -2. Their form reflects a slight improvement with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. While both teams have shown some potential, the lack of wins is concerning for both sides. The model output gives Toulouse a win probability of around 45%, with a projected score of 1-0. One key market to note is the odds for a low-scoring match, which may be appealing given both teams' struggles in front of goal. However, a caveat to this prediction is that early-season form can be unpredictable, and either team could find a way to turn the tide. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Toulouse have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Toulouse are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toulouse vs Le Havre| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.05 | 4.80 | 1.66 | 2.25 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.71 | 4.11 | 4.96 | 1.68 | 2.32 | — | — | |
| 1.71 | 3.42 | 3.97 | 1.70 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.75 | 4.16 | 4.93 | 1.71 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 2.17 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.85 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toulouse leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Toulouse and Le Havre, Toulouse has won 5 times, Le Havre has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of narrow and decisive victories. Notably, Toulouse recorded a heavy 4-0 win in 2022, while Le Havre's most recent victory came with a 2-1 win in February 2026. The matches have been relatively low-scoring overall, with several fixtures ending in draws or by a single goal. Le Havre's last win was recent, suggesting a balance in their head-to-head encounters.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 | Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToulouse have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lille 0-1 and lost to Lyon 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 11L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Le Havre have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Lyon 1-1 and beat Le Mans 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 12L from the last 28 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToulouse
No reported absences
Le Havre
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Hakim Ben el Hadj has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Hakim Ben el Hadj to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Toulouse have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Le Havre 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toulouse have generated 1.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toulouse player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
