Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toulouse vs Lyon
Match Preview
The model favours Lyon to win against Toulouse, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lyon enters the season with a stronger recent form, having secured two wins in their last five matches, showcasing a potential for improvement after a mixed end to last season. Their ability to score and maintain competitive performances will be crucial as they aim to build on their mid-table finish from the previous campaign. On the other hand, Toulouse is starting the season in a precarious position, having only managed three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This form suggests they may struggle to find consistency early in the new season. With no recent competitive matches to draw from, it remains uncertain how they will adapt against a team like Lyon. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Lyon, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is Lyon's likelihood of scoring at least two goals. However, one caveat is that both teams are starting the season fresh, and unforeseen factors such as injuries or tactical adjustments could impact the match outcome. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season to arrive at these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Lyon have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lyon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toulouse vs Lyon| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.84 | 3.55 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 2.31 | 3.58 | 3.12 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.36 | 3.46 | 3.18 | 1.94 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.18 | 2.86 | 1.90 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.35 | 3.64 | 3.18 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
| 2.28 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.81 | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2.18 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lyon leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Toulouse and Lyon, Lyon has won 7 times, Toulouse has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Lyon to secure victories, often by narrow margins, with five matches decided by a single goal. However, there have also been some lopsided results, including two instances where Lyon won 3-0. Toulouse's only victory came in their most recent encounter, highlighting a slight shift in competitiveness. Overall, Lyon's dominance in this fixture is evident, although recent results suggest potential for closer contests.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Paris FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 | Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToulouse have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lille 0-1 and lost to Lyon 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 11L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lyon have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Toulouse 0-2 and drew with Fenerbahçe 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 10L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedToulouse3-4-2-1Confirmed
Lyon4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersToulouse5
Lyon7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Paradis has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by G. Paradis to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Toulouse have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Lyon 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lyon have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lyon player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
