Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win against Anderlecht, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Union St. Gilloise currently sits in 5th place in the league standings, having played two matches this season, securing one win and one draw. They have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, scoring five goals while conceding just one, resulting in a goal difference of +4. Their recent form has also been solid, with one win, three draws, and just one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Anderlecht occupies 8th place, having played the same number of matches but with a record of one win and one loss. They have scored two goals and conceded two, leading to a goal difference of 0. Although Anderlecht has shown resilience in their last five matches with four wins and only one loss, their inconsistency at the start of the season could be a concern as they face a strong opponent. The model suggests a win probability of 60% for Union St. Gilloise, with the projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is their home advantage, which historically boosts performance. However, if Anderlecht manages to find their rhythm early in the game, it could disrupt Union St. Gilloise's plans. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Union St. Gilloise clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.60 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.71 | 3.91 | 4.64 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.49 | 4.21 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.72 | 3.94 | 4.71 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.70 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 7-1)Union St. Gilloise has a dominant head-to-head record against Anderlecht, winning 7 of the last 10 matches, with 2 draws and only 1 win for Anderlecht. The scorelines indicate a trend of significant victories for Union St. Gilloise, including a notable 5-1 win and several other matches won by at least two goals. Anderlecht's sole victory came in a narrow 1-0 match, highlighting a struggle to compete with Union St. Gilloise. Additionally, the last time Anderlecht won against Union St. Gilloise was over two years ago, further emphasizing the latter's strong advantage in this fixture.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Charleroi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Zulte Waregem | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Antwerp | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Gent | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 7 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | Anderlecht | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 |  OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  KVC Westerlo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion St. Gilloise have won 16 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Zulte Waregem 0-0 and drew with Bodo/Glimt 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 9D 4L from the last 34 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Anderlecht have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Anderlecht 0-3 and lost to SK Beveren 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 13L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Anderlecht
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Union St. Gilloise have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Anderlecht 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
