Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna
Match Preview
The model favours Villarreal to win against Deportivo La Coruna, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Villarreal currently sits in 8th place in La Liga, having played one match this season which resulted in a draw. Their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss over the last five matches, indicating a relatively stable performance. Key to their play has been their ability to score, netting two goals in their opening fixture. Deportivo La Coruna is just one place behind Villarreal in 9th, also with one draw to start their season. Their recent form, however, is less impressive, with only one win in their last five matches. The team has struggled to convert opportunities, scoring just one goal while conceding one in their opening game, which highlights a need for improvement in their attacking play. The model suggests Villarreal has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One potential caveat is that both teams have similar early-season statistics, and a draw is certainly within the realm of possibility. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Villarreal have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Villarreal win as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Villarreal clean sheets, in line with their 9% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Villarreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.48 | 4.20 | 6.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.48 | 4.75 | 6.55 | 1.66 | 2.26 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 1.46 | 4.90 | 7.02 | 1.66 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 1.42 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 1.74 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.45 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.51 | 4.86 | 6.70 | 1.71 | 2.33 | 1.82 | 1.90 | |
| 1.48 | 4.40 | 6.50 | 1.68 | 2.15 | 1.81 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.35 | 6.40 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
Superbet | 1.47 | 4.70 | 6.60 | 1.73 | 2.12 | 1.88 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Villarreal leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna, Villarreal has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and Deportivo La Coruna has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a fairly balanced rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, as evidenced by four goalless draws and a mix of narrow and moderate victories. Notably, Deportivo La Coruna's last win in this fixture came in May 2016, suggesting a trend where Villarreal has had the upper hand more recently. Overall, while Villarreal holds a slight edge, the competition has often been close.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 15 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Alaves | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 9 | LWWW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | WLWW |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruna | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | WWDD |
| 6 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LWDW |
| 16 | Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 | LLDD |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 2 | DLDL |
| 19 |  Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 1 | LLD |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | LLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVillarreal have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Deportivo La Coruna 2-3 and beat Levante 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 12L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Deportivo La Coruna have won 5 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-3 and drew with Malaga 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 2L from the last 17 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVillarreal4-4-2Confirmed
Deportivo La Coruna4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersVillarreal1
Deportivo La Coruna5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Villarreal have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Deportivo La Coruna 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Villarreal have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Villarreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
