Celtic vs Aberdeen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Celtic vs Aberdeen
Match Preview
The model favours Celtic to secure a victory against Aberdeen, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Celtic currently leads the Premiership, having won both of their opening matches, scoring six goals while conceding just one. Their strong goal difference of +5 is indicative of their attacking prowess and solid defensive performance. With four wins and one draw in their last five matches, Celtic is demonstrating consistent form that bodes well for their title ambitions. Aberdeen, on the other hand, sits in eighth place after two matches, with one win and one loss. They have managed to score two goals but have also conceded three, resulting in a goal difference of -1. Despite a recent run of four wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance indicates they may struggle against a dominant side like Celtic, especially given their defensive vulnerabilities. The model gives Celtic a high win probability for this match, reflecting their strong start to the season. However, a potential caveat is that if Aberdeen can exploit any defensive lapses from Celtic, they could pose a threat and perhaps find the back of the net. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis was conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Celtic have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Celtic win as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Celtic clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Celtic are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Celtic vs Aberdeen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.24 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 1.42 | 2.85 | 1.77 | 2.00 | |
| 1.24 | 5.90 | 10.50 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.25 | 6.26 | 12.01 | 1.40 | 3.01 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.90 | 8.87 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 5.80 | 11.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.22 | 6.25 | 9.50 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.25 | 5.90 | 10.50 | 1.36 | 2.72 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
| 1.21 | 6.10 | 11.00 | 1.38 | 2.88 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.28 | 6.60 | 10.75 | 1.44 | 2.90 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
Superbet | 1.26 | 6.40 | 9.50 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Celtic leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between Celtic and Aberdeen, Celtic has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw, while Aberdeen has not secured a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Celtic, with several heavy wins including a 6-0 and a 5-1, alongside narrower victories such as 2-1 and 1-0. The absence of Aberdeen wins in this sample highlights a significant gap in performance, with their last victory over Celtic being notably absent from recent encounters. The matches have also featured a mix of high-scoring and tightly contested draws, reflecting varied competitiveness.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  ST Mirren | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCeltic have won 14 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Celtic 3-0 and beat Celtic 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 5L from the last 32 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aberdeen have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Celtic 3-0 and beat Queen of the South 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 14L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCeltic4-2-3-1Confirmed
Aberdeen4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersCeltic
No reported absences
Aberdeen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Nicolson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Nicolson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Celtic have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Aberdeen 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Celtic have generated 1.96 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 69% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Celtic player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
