FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City
Match Preview
The model favours FC Dallas to win against Sporting Kansas City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Dallas currently sits in 5th place in the standings, reflecting a solid season with 9 wins from 21 matches. Their goal difference of +4 indicates a balanced offensive and defensive performance, while their form shows three wins in the last five matches, suggesting they are in decent shape heading into this fixture. In contrast, Sporting Kansas City is struggling at 15th place with only 4 wins from 20 matches. Their goal difference of -30 highlights significant defensive issues, as they have conceded 49 goals while scoring just 19. Their recent form, with just one win in their last five matches, illustrates ongoing challenges in both attack and defense, which could hinder their chances against a more formidable opponent like FC Dallas. The model assigns a win probability of 66.3% for FC Dallas, with a 19.1% chance of a draw and a 14.7% chance for Sporting Kansas City. While the statistics strongly support a victory for FC Dallas, one caveat is that they could struggle to convert their chances if they face an unexpectedly resilient Sporting defense. The full prediction methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
FC Dallas have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 FC Dallas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature FC Dallas clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Dallas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.85 | 6.20 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.36 | 5.15 | 6.90 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.40 | 5.42 | 7.10 | 1.44 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.22 | 5.03 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.42 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.10 | 1.38 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.90 | 6.20 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Dallas leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between FC Dallas and Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas has won 5 times, Sporting Kansas City has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches; notably, six of the encounters ended with a margin of one goal. Additionally, both teams have recorded victories with scores reflecting a mix of tight contests and some higher-scoring games, such as the 4-2 win for Sporting Kansas City. The last time Sporting Kansas City won was in May 2022, suggesting a slight edge for FC Dallas in more recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 30 | 53 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 43 | LWWLW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 40 | DDLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 43 | DWLDL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 37 | DDDLL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 38 | DDDWW |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 37 | WDLWW |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 | DWDWL |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 15 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 21 | LLDWD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Dallas have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sporting Kansas City 4-3 and beat Club Queretaro 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 8L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sporting Kansas City 4-3 and lost to Atlanta United FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 20L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Dallas4-4-2Confirmed
Sporting Kansas City4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersFC Dallas4
Sporting Kansas City3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Dallas have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Sporting Kansas City 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Dallas have generated 1.02 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Dallas player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
