New York City FC vs Nashville SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Nashville SC
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against New York City FC, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the standings, boasting an impressive record of 14 wins from 20 matches. Their goal-scoring prowess has seen them net 40 goals while conceding just 15, resulting in a strong goal difference of 25. Nashville's form has been solid, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating their ability to maintain pressure in crucial fixtures. In contrast, New York City FC finds itself in seventh place, with a record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses. Their recent form has been concerning, as they have managed just one victory in their last five matches, experiencing four losses. While they have scored 34 goals, their defensive record with 29 goals conceded suggests vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a potent Nashville attack. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 60% to Nashville SC for this match, reflecting their strong season performance and current form. However, one caveat to consider is that New York City FC may capitalize on home advantage, which could level the playing field. The full method used for this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Nashville SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.55 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.84 | 3.46 | 2.32 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.55 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.98 | 3.64 | 2.36 | 1.83 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 2.42 | 3.08 | 2.42 | 1.77 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.48 | 3.35 | 2.70 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.57 | 1.80 | 2.07 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.67 | 1.78 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Nashville SC leads 4-3)In the last nine matches between New York City FC and Nashville SC, Nashville holds a slight edge with four wins compared to three for New York City FC, along with two draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; five games ended with a one-goal difference. However, only one match has finished in a draw, suggesting a tendency for decisive outcomes. Notably, Nashville SC has won three of the last five encounters, indicating a stronger recent performance in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 30 | 53 | DWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 43 | LWWLW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 40 | DDLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 43 | DWLDL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 37 | DDDLL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 38 | DDDWW |
| 7 | New York City FC | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 29 | DDDLL |
| 14 |  Austin | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 25 | DWDWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 15 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 21 | LLDWD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Nashville SC 0-0 and lost to Philadelphia Union 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 14L from the last 36 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nashville SC have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Nashville SC 0-0 and beat New York Red Bulls 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 9D 7L from the last 37 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-3-3Confirmed
Nashville SC4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersNew York City FC10
Nashville SC1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Nashville SC 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
