Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire for their upcoming match against Toronto FC, predicting a scoreline of 2-1 in favour of the visitors. Chicago currently occupies a strong third position in the league, showcasing impressive form with 11 wins from 19 matches. Their goal difference of +11 highlights a solid offensive and defensive balance, and they have scored 36 goals while conceding just 25, reflecting their ability to dominate matches. In contrast, Toronto FC sits lower in the standings at 11th place with a record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses. Their recent form has been inconsistent, managing just one win in their last five matches. With a goal difference of -7, their defensive struggles are evident, as they have conceded 36 goals while only scoring 29. This trend could be a concern as they face a team in top form. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Chicago Fire, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Toronto's home advantage, which could influence the match dynamics. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Toronto FC have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Toronto FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.74 | 3.75 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.80 | 3.64 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 2.85 | 3.67 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.41 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.31 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.80 | 3.65 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.87 | 3.65 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.29 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chicago Fire leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire, Chicago Fire has won 5 times, Toronto FC has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, but with a slight edge for Chicago Fire, who have secured more victories. Notably, Chicago Fire has achieved several narrow wins, including three matches decided by a single goal, while there have also been a few high-scoring encounters. Toronto FC's last victory was in 2022, indicating a challenging period against Chicago Fire in recent matchups.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 18 | 30 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 30 | 52 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 39 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 42 | WLDLD |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 36 | DDLLD |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 25 | DWDWD |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 21 | LDWDD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 15 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Columbus Crew | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 20 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 3-3 and beat Toronto FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 10L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 7 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Chicago Fire 2-2 and lost to Monterrey 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 10L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToronto FC
No reported absences
Chicago Fire
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 3.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toronto FC have generated 0.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 2.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toronto FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
