Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flamengo vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win against Mirassol with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 45 points from 23 matches. Their season has been impressive, with a record of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. They have scored 45 goals while conceding only 21, showcasing their strong offensive and defensive capabilities. Their recent form has also been solid, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Mirassol finds themselves struggling in 17th place, just above the relegation zone. They have gathered only 23 points from 22 matches, with a disappointing record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses. Their goal difference of -10 highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 35 goals while scoring only 25. Their recent form is concerning, having failed to secure a victory in their last five matches, resulting in three losses and two draws. The model suggests a win probability of 70% for Flamengo, making them the clear favourites for this encounter. However, one caveat is that if Mirassol can manage to frustrate Flamengo's attack early in the match, it could lead to a more competitive game than anticipated. For further details on our prediction methodology, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of matches. Mirassol average 1.1 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 66% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Flamengo win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Flamengo clean sheets, in line with their 43% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flamengo vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.19 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.17 | 6.95 | 13.75 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 2.20 | 1.58 | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 2.25 | 1.62 | |
| 1.18 | 7.33 | 16.51 | 1.52 | 2.53 | — | — | |
| 1.19 | 6.09 | 10.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.19 | 7.55 | 15.00 | 1.46 | 2.39 | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| 1.18 | 6.75 | 14.00 | 1.46 | 2.65 | 2.08 | 1.66 | |
Betano | 1.23 | 6.80 | 15.50 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
Superbet | 1.18 | 7.30 | 14.00 | 1.54 | 2.50 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 17.00 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 2.25 | 1.57 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Flamengo leads 1-0)In the last three matches between Flamengo and Mirassol, Flamengo has won once, there has been one draw, and Mirassol has not secured a victory. The scorelines indicate a competitive nature, with a notable 3-3 draw highlighting the potential for high-scoring encounters. Flamengo's single win was a narrow 2-1 victory, demonstrating that matches are often closely contested. Mirassol's lack of wins in this sample suggests they have struggled to find success against Flamengo historically, particularly in more recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlamengo have won 16 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Flamengo 2-0 and beat Flamengo 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 29W 9D 6L from the last 44 games (66% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mirassol have won 3 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Mirassol 2-0 and drew with Santos 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 16L from the last 41 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFlamengo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Mirassol5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersFlamengo5
Mirassol4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Daronco has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Flamengo have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 66% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
