Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Coritiba vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 10th in the Serie A standings, Coritiba has had a mixed season with 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, accumulating 31 points. Their goal difference stands at -2, indicating a slight struggle defensively, but they have managed to score 28 goals. While their recent form shows only one victory in the last five matches, they have managed to secure points through draws, suggesting they can be competitive. On the other hand, Mirassol finds itself struggling in 17th place, with a record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, which has earned them just 23 points. Their goal difference of -10 highlights significant defensive issues, having conceded 35 goals while scoring only 25. Mirassol’s recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches and three consecutive losses. This trend raises questions about their ability to perform under pressure. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Coritiba, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their stronger position in the league. A key market insight is the likelihood of Coritiba winning at home. However, Coritiba's inconsistency in form could present an opportunity for Mirassol to capitalize if they can improve their performance. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches. Mirassol average 1.1 goals per game.
Coritiba manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Mirassol score 1.07 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Coritiba have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Coritiba clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Coritiba are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Coritiba vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.34 | 3.24 | 2.97 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.84 | 1.84 | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.20 | 1.60 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.32 | 3.09 | 2.20 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.41 | 3.34 | 3.06 | 2.18 | 1.71 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.06 | 1.66 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Mirassol leads 2-1)In the last three matches between Coritiba and Mirassol, Coritiba has won 1 time, while Mirassol has secured 2 victories, resulting in no draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive dynamic, with Mirassol achieving a narrow 1-0 win in both of their victories, while Coritiba's sole win was also by a single goal margin. The matches overall have been closely contested, but Mirassol's two recent wins suggest they have the upper hand historically in this matchup. Coritiba has not won against Mirassol since March 2026, highlighting a recent trend favoring Mirassol.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 37 | LWWDW |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritiba have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Coritiba 2-1 and lost to Coritiba 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 11D 9L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mirassol have won 3 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Mirassol 2-0 and drew with Santos 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 16L from the last 41 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersCoritiba6
Mirassol4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Policarpo Bento has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Coritiba have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Coritiba have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Coritiba player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
