RB Bragantino vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
RB Bragantino vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours RB Bragantino to win this match against Bahia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. RB Bragantino currently sits in 7th place in the Serie A standings, with a record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses this season. They have scored 27 goals while conceding 23, resulting in a goal difference of +4. Despite a mixed recent form, with just one win in their last five matches, they have demonstrated the ability to compete effectively at home. Bahia, on the other hand, occupies 6th place with a record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, totaling 34 points. They have a slightly better goal tally, scoring 32 goals and conceding 28. However, their recent form has been concerning, as they have drawn all five of their last matches, failing to secure a win. This run of draws could indicate a struggle to convert opportunities into victories, which might be critical against a side like Bragantino. The model suggests a win probability of around 55% for Bragantino, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Bahia can break their streak of draws and find their scoring touch, they could pose a significant threat. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
RB Bragantino manage games at home, conceding just 0.98 goals per match. Bahia score 1.58 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
RB Bragantino have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature RB Bragantino clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. RB Bragantino are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
RB Bragantino vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.96 | 3.56 | 3.56 | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.57 | 3.67 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.99 | 3.06 | 3.12 | 1.87 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.02 | 3.66 | 3.66 | 1.88 | 1.96 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.85 | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bahia leads 5-3)The head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Bahia shows that Bahia has won 5 matches, RB Bragantino has won 3, and there have been 2 draws in their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate that Bahia has had a stronger grip on the matchups, with several decisive wins including a 4-0 and a 3-0 victory. While there have been tight matches, such as the 1-1 draw and 3-3 tie, Bahia’s recent performances suggest a more dominant trend, as they have won four of the last five meetings, with RB Bragantino last triumphing in 2024.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 48 | WLWWD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 45 | DWDWD |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 42 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 35 | LWDLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 23 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRB Bragantino have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat RB Bragantino 1-0 and lost to RB Bragantino 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 14L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bahia 0-2 and drew with Chapecoense-sc 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 9L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRB Bragantino
No reported absences
Bahia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Lima Barbosa has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Lima Barbosa to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
RB Bragantino have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; Bahia 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
RB Bragantino have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. RB Bragantino player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
