Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win against Vasco da Gama, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Fluminense currently sits in 4th place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a strong season with 11 wins, 8 draws, and only 5 losses from 24 matches. Their goal difference of +7, with 36 goals scored and 29 conceded, highlights their solid performance. Recent form has been encouraging, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating they are difficult to beat. In contrast, Vasco da Gama finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 19th place. With only 5 wins out of 23 matches, their season has been challenging, marked by 11 losses and a negative goal difference of -14. They have scored 24 goals but conceded 38, which reflects their struggles in both attack and defence. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses, which adds to the pressure they face heading into this fixture. The model gives Fluminense a win probability of approximately 65% for this match. However, a potential caveat is that if Vasco can improve their defensive performance or if Fluminense underperforms, the expected outcome could shift. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Fluminense manage games at home, conceding just 1.02 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fluminense clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.55 | 4.80 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.77 | |
| 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.22 | 2.11 | 1.70 | 1.84 | 1.84 | |
| 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.75 | 2.10 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.33 | 3.22 | 3.40 | 2.22 | 1.70 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.24 | 3.40 | 3.32 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 1.84 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.80 | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama stands at 4 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team dominating the other. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight contests and a few narrow victories, with several matches ending 1-0 or 2-1, reflecting competitive encounters. Notably, the most recent match saw Vasco DA Gama winning 3-1, while Fluminense last secured a win over Vasco DA Gama in December 2025. Overall, both teams have shown equal strength in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 | Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 25 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 16 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 and beat Remo 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 16D 8L from the last 44 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 and lost to Palmeiras 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 13D 14L from the last 43 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFluminense4-2-3-1Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersFluminense5
Vasco DA Gama5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Lacerda has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
