Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Match Preview
The model favours Philadelphia Union to win against CF Montreal, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Both teams are in a tight contest at the bottom of the standings, sharing identical records with 20 points each. However, the Union's position at 13th compared to Montreal's 14th suggests a slight edge based on their overall performance throughout the season. Philadelphia Union has shown a mixed bag of form recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. They have scored 30 goals this season while conceding 37, leading to a goal difference of -7. This goal-scoring ability may prove crucial as they face a Montreal side that has struggled defensively, conceding the same number of goals but scoring three fewer. On the other hand, CF Montreal's recent form has been less impressive, with only one win in their last five matches. Their goal difference of -10 indicates vulnerabilities in both attack and defence. With such similar records, this match could be pivotal for both teams in their quest to climb the standings. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Philadelphia Union, while one key market percentage is not provided. A potential caveat for the Union could be their inconsistency, which, if it continues, might allow Montreal to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full method of prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season, as assessed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Philadelphia Union win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Philadelphia Union clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.25 | 1.41 | 2.54 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.55 | 6.20 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal, Philadelphia Union has won 6 times, CF Montreal has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including three games decided by a single goal. However, Philadelphia Union has achieved more decisive victories, notably a 3-0 win and a 2-0 win. CF Montreal's last victory in this matchup came in February 2026, suggesting a slight trend favoring Philadelphia Union in recent encounters. Overall, while the matches have been closely contested, Philadelphia Union has had the upper hand historically.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 17 | 30 | 52 | WWWWD |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 18 | 30 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 42 | WLDLD |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 39 | DLWWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 36 | DDLLD |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 24 | WDDWW |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 21 | LDWDD |
| 15 |  Columbus Crew | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 15 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPhiladelphia Union have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Philadelphia Union 2-2 and lost to Philadelphia Union 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 15L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
CF Montreal have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to CF Montreal 7-1 and beat Columbus Crew 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPhiladelphia Union
No reported absences
CF Montreal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Philadelphia Union have averaged 6.4 corners per match at home; CF Montreal 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.26 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
