Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren
Match Preview
The model favours St Mirren to win this match against Kilmarnock, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St Mirren currently sits in a strong second position in the league, having won both of their opening matches without conceding a goal. Their solid defensive record, with zero goals against, is a key factor for their early season success, alongside a goal difference of +3. In contrast, Kilmarnock is struggling at the bottom of the table, currently in 12th place with two losses from their first two matches. They have conceded nine goals, which highlights significant defensive issues, and their goal difference of -5 indicates a lack of balance in their play. While they have shown some potential with two wins in their last five matches, their current form does not inspire confidence. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for St Mirren. However, a potential concern for St Mirren could be complacency, as they may underestimate a Kilmarnock side desperate for points. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.68 | 3.48 | 2.43 | 1.60 | 2.29 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 2.74 | 3.69 | 2.51 | 1.62 | 2.39 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.39 | 2.25 | 1.79 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.75 | 3.42 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.19 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.35 | |
Betano | 2.77 | 3.55 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.45 |
Superbet | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.42 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 1.51 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kilmarnock leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Kilmarnock and ST Mirren, Kilmarnock has won 6 times, drawn 3 times, and ST Mirren has won once. This record indicates a significant advantage for Kilmarnock, particularly highlighted by their ability to secure narrow victories, as seen in several matches with scores like 1-0 and 2-0. ST Mirren's only win, a heavy 5-1 victory, stands out as an anomaly in an otherwise tight series of encounters. The frequent draws also suggest competitive matches, but Kilmarnock's dominance is clear, with ST Mirren last winning in 2025.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 | ST Mirren | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKilmarnock have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kilmarnock 0-1 and lost to Kilmarnock 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 11L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Mirren have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kilmarnock 0-1 and lost to Rangers 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKilmarnock
No reported absences
ST Mirren
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Dickinson has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Kilmarnock have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; ST Mirren 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 0.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
