Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Hibernian to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Hibernian currently sits in 7th position in the Premiership after two matches, with one win and one loss. Their goal tally stands at three goals scored and three conceded, indicating a balanced start to the season. Notably, Hibernian has shown strong form recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws, which may provide them with the confidence needed to secure a home victory. On the other hand, Heart Of Midlothian is positioned 4th in the league, also with one win and one loss from their two fixtures. They have scored five goals while conceding two, giving them a positive goal difference of three. Despite their solid attacking output, their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a determined Hibernian side. The model outputs a win probability for Hibernian at 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat to consider is the potential for Heart Of Midlothian to exploit any defensive lapses from Hibernian, especially given their scoring capability. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Hibernian have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Hibernian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.65 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.50 | 3.36 | 2.67 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.57 | 3.40 | 2.74 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 2.33 | 3.05 | 2.53 | 1.86 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.50 | 3.36 | 2.67 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
| 2.43 | 3.30 | 2.65 | 1.81 | 1.95 | 1.61 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.72 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.75 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.68 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Hibernian and Heart Of Midlothian stands at 3 wins for Hibernian, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Heart Of Midlothian over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with several narrow margins, as evidenced by the 1-0 and 2-1 results. There have been three draws, suggesting that matches can be closely contested. Heart Of Midlothian has been more successful recently, with their last victory coming in December 2023, while Hibernian's last win was in December 2024, illustrating a slight edge for Heart Of Midlothian in this matchup.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  ST Mirren | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WWL |
| 4 |  Dundee | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LWWL |
| 5 | Hibernian | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Motherwell | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | LLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHibernian have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Hibernian 2-3 and beat Hibernian 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 11L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Rapid Vienna 1-1 and lost to Benfica 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 9L from the last 33 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHibernian
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hibernian have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hibernian have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hibernian player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.