West Ham vs Derby Prediction, Tips & Odds
West Ham vs Derby
Match Preview
The model favours West Ham to secure a narrow victory over Derby, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Both teams are currently in the lower half of the Championship standings, with West Ham sitting in 18th position and Derby just above them in 17th. Both clubs have managed just one point from their opening two matches, highlighting a shared struggle early in the season. West Ham has shown some resilience despite their recent form, which includes a win, three draws, and a loss in their last five matches. They have scored three goals and conceded four so far, indicating that while they are finding the net, their defence needs improvement. Key to their chances will be their ability to convert more of their opportunities into goals, as they look to build momentum in the coming weeks. In contrast, Derby's form has been troubling, with no wins in their last five matches, including three losses. They have also scored three goals while conceding four, similar to West Ham, but their lack of victories and inability to close out matches may weigh heavily on their confidence. This could be a crucial factor as they face West Ham, who will be eager to turn their season around. The model gives West Ham a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, the caveat is that both teams are struggling for form, and a lack of consistency could lead to an unexpected outcome. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team details their in-house model based on expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
West Ham have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 West Ham win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature West Ham clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. West Ham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
West Ham vs Derby| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.30 | 5.10 | 9.75 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.35 | 4.80 | 8.10 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.98 | 1.72 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| 1.37 | 5.02 | 7.71 | 1.74 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.36 | 4.80 | 8.05 | 1.72 | 2.08 | 1.98 | 1.74 | |
| 1.32 | 5.00 | 9.00 | 1.68 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 1.68 | |
Betano | 1.33 | 5.30 | 9.25 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (West Ham leads 2-1)West Ham hold the edge in this fixture, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings with 0 draws and 1 Derby win. The record points to a tie West Ham have controlled for years, though the draws show Derby have at times kept it tight.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 | West Ham | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 | WDLD |
| 15 | Derby | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | WLDL |
| 22 |  Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LDD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 24 |  Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWest Ham have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Wolves 4-2 and lost to Charlton 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 7L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Derby have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Derby 0-2 and lost to Charlton 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 14L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWest Ham
No reported absences
Derby
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
West Ham have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Derby 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
West Ham have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. West Ham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
