Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Tips & Odds
Burnley vs Middlesbrough
Match Preview
The model favours Middlesbrough to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Burnley. Middlesbrough currently sits in 4th place in the Championship, having secured 3 points from their opening match of the season. Their strong start, marked by a solid goal difference of +1, reflects their offensive capabilities, having scored 2 goals while conceding only 1. Burnley, on the other hand, finds themselves in 11th place after one match, with a record of 1 draw and no wins. They have managed to score 2 goals but have also conceded 2, resulting in a goal difference of 0. Their recent form shows a troubling trend, as they have not won in their last five matches, with three draws and two losses. According to the model, Middlesbrough has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Burnley's chances are estimated at 25%. The key market percentage indicates that Middlesbrough is favoured to win based on their early-season momentum. However, a potential caveat for Middlesbrough could be complacency after a strong start or Burnley's ability to turn around their recent form. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Middlesbrough have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Middlesbrough are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Burnley vs Middlesbrough| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.38 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.39 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.81 | 3.64 | 2.45 | 1.75 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.56 | 3.14 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.39 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.48 | 1.74 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.40 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
Superbet | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.42 | 1.74 | 2.10 | 1.59 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Burnley leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Burnley and Middlesbrough stands at 4 wins for Burnley, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Middlesbrough over the last 10 matches. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams sharing the spoils evenly. The scorelines suggest a tendency for tight contests, highlighted by four matches ending in draws and several narrow victories, such as Burnley's 1-0 and 2-1 wins. Middlesbrough's last victory against Burnley came in December 2015, indicating a significant gap since they last triumphed, which may influence the psychological dynamics in future encounters.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 22 |  Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LDD |
| 23 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 24 |  Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBurnley have won 1 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Burnley 2-2 and drew with Burnley 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 17L from the last 30 games (7% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Middlesbrough have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Doncaster 1-3 and lost to Blackburn 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 8L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersBurnley7
Middlesbrough1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Donohue has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Donohue to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Burnley average 1.1 goals per match at home; Middlesbrough 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Middlesbrough have generated 1.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Middlesbrough player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
