Stoke City vs Charlton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Stoke City vs Charlton
Match Preview
The model favours Charlton to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Stoke City. Charlton currently sits in a strong second position in the league, having won both of their opening matches this season. Their positive goal difference of +2, with four goals scored and two conceded, highlights their effective attacking play and solid defensive structure, making them a formidable opponent for any side. On the other hand, Stoke City is struggling at the bottom of the table in 21st place, having lost both of their opening fixtures. With two goals scored and five conceded, they are facing challenges in both attack and defence, reflected in their negative goal difference of -3. This early season form, with two losses and only two goals to show for their efforts, suggests they are in need of a turnaround to avoid further slipping down the standings. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Charlton, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat for this prediction is that Stoke City could find their footing at home, which may disrupt Charlton's momentum. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 14% of matches. Charlton average 1.0 goals per game.
Stoke City manage games at home, conceding just 1.64 goals per match. Charlton score 1.03 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Charlton have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Stoke City clean sheets, in line with their 14% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Charlton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Stoke City vs Charlton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.13 | 3.18 | 3.48 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.87 | 1.81 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 2.15 | 3.18 | 3.48 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 2.04 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 1.88 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)Stoke City and Charlton have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 2 wins each and 0 draws across the last 4 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 | Charlton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Wolves | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | LWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Bristol City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WWDL |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 21 | Stoke City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 | WLLL |
| 22 |  Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | LDD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 24 |  Preston | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonStoke City have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Stoke City 1-1 and lost to Stoke City 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 8D 15L from the last 28 games (18% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Charlton have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tottenham 5-1 and beat West Ham 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 10L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersStoke City
No reported absences
Charlton
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Stoke City average 1.0 goals per match at home; Charlton 1.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlton have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 41% of their matches and averaging 1.0 goals per game. Charlton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
