QPR vs Cardiff Prediction, Tips & Odds
QPR vs Cardiff
Match Preview
The model favours QPR to secure a win against Cardiff, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. QPR currently sits at the top of the Championship table after their opening match, where they secured a convincing 3-1 victory. This strong start is backed by their recent form, which includes four wins and one draw in their last five matches. With a goal difference of +2, their attacking prowess appears robust, making them a formidable opponent. Cardiff, on the other hand, is positioned 13th after one game, having drawn their first match 1-1. Although they have shown resilience with four wins in their last five matches, their current form does not match the high-flying QPR. Cardiff's goal difference remains neutral, indicating they may need to bolster their attacking efforts to compete effectively. According to the model, QPR has a win probability of around 60%, while Cardiff's chances stand at 20%, with a 20% likelihood of a draw. One potential caveat for QPR is that they might struggle to maintain their offensive momentum if Cardiff's defense tightens up. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
QPR have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. QPR are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
QPR vs Cardiff| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 1.79 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.84 | 4.16 | 3.98 | 1.53 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.47 | 3.38 | 1.57 | 2.36 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.78 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 1.78 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 1.52 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 4.05 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
Superbet | 1.82 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.54 | 2.50 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (QPR leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between QPR and Cardiff, QPR has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Cardiff has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, including three draws. Notably, QPR has achieved a couple of heavy wins, such as a 3-0 victory, which contrasts with Cardiff's wins, which have been narrower. Cardiff's last win in this fixture dates back to 2024, suggesting they have struggled to find success against QPR in recent encounters.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 3 | QPR | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 4 |  Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWWDL |
| 5 |  West Brom | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Charlton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | LDWWW |
| 22 | Cardiff | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLDDD |
| 23 |  Preston | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | WLLLL |
| 24 |  Burnley | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQPR have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 0-1 and beat Cardiff 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 11L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cardiff have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cardiff 2-0 and lost to QPR 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 5L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersQPR3
Cardiff3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Robinson has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
QPR have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Cardiff 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
QPR have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. QPR player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
