Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dundee vs ST Johnstone
Match Preview
The model favours Dundee to win against St Johnstone, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Dundee currently sits in fifth place in the Premiership, having played two matches this season, securing one win and suffering one loss. They have scored two goals while conceding one, which gives them a positive goal difference of one. Their recent form shows a slight upward trend, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating they are finding some rhythm. St Johnstone, on the other hand, is positioned just behind Dundee in sixth place with the same points total. They have also played two matches, recording one win and one loss. Their goal tally stands at four scored and four conceded, resulting in a goal difference of zero. Their recent form is mixed, highlighted by two wins in their last five matches, but they have also struggled defensively, which could be a concern against a team like Dundee. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for Dundee, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market indicator is the likelihood of Dundee scoring more than one goal. However, the caveat is that if St Johnstone can capitalize on their current attacking form, they could challenge Dundee's defence more than expected. The full method of our analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side, winning 73% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. ST Johnstone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Dundee vs ST Johnstone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.50 | 2.54 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.67 | 3.44 | 2.46 | 1.81 | 1.97 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.78 | 3.59 | 2.53 | 1.85 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.22 | 2.32 | 1.85 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.64 | 3.42 | 2.49 | 1.81 | 1.97 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.55 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.52 | 1.85 | 1.97 | 1.66 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.77 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Dundee leads 5-1)Dundee and ST Johnstone have faced each other 10 times recently, with Dundee winning 5 matches, drawing 4, and ST Johnstone securing just 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow wins for Dundee, such as 1-0 and 2-1, alongside a notable 3-1 away win. ST Johnstone's only win came in October 2024, suggesting a struggle to maintain consistent success against Dundee. Overall, Dundee has had the upper hand, but the frequent draws indicate that matches between these teams can often be closely contested.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  ST Mirren | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Rangers | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 7 | ST Johnstone | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WDLLW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDundee have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with ST Johnstone 1-1 and lost to Hibernian 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 14L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
ST Johnstone have won 7 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with ST Johnstone 1-1 and lost to Heart Of Midlothian 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 2L from the last 15 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDundee4-2-3-1Confirmed
ST Johnstone4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersDundee
No reported absences
ST Johnstone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Hardie has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Dundee have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; ST Johnstone 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Johnstone have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 73% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Johnstone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.