1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Tips & Odds
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Match Preview
The model favours 1. FC Köln to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Köln currently sits in 13th place in the Bundesliga, having played four matches with a record of one win, one draw, and two losses. They have scored six goals but conceded nine, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form shows a slight improvement, with two wins in their last five matches, which may indicate a positive trend as they look to build momentum. On the other hand, Borussia Mönchengladbach is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having lost all four of their matches this season. They have yet to register a point, scoring six goals but conceding a troubling 16, leading to a goal difference of -10. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with four consecutive losses and only one win in their last five matches. This lack of form could severely impact their confidence going into this match. The model gives 1. FC Köln a win probability of 47.8%, with a 24.3% chance of a draw and a 27.9% chance for Borussia Mönchengladbach to win. With a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 62.7% and both teams to score at 62.6%, there is potential for a high-scoring affair. However, Köln's inability to maintain defensive stability could leave them vulnerable. For a detailed explanation of our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
1. FC Köln have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. 1. FC Köln are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.96 | 4.05 | 3.52 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 2.49 | |
| 1.97 | 4.01 | 3.38 | 1.53 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.44 | 3.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.01 | 4.15 | 3.61 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.47 | 2.53 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (1. FC Köln leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1. FC Köln has won 4 times, there have been 3 draws, and Borussia Mönchengladbach has also won 3 times. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and some more decisive victories, with three matches ending in a draw and several games showing a margin of two or more goals. Notably, the most recent match ended in a 3-3 draw, indicating that both teams have been competitive, while Köln's last victory was a 3-1 win in October 2023. Overall, the record suggests a balanced rivalry with no single side dominating.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 | LDLW |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season1. FC Köln have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with 1. FC Köln 1-1 and beat 1. FC Köln 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 10L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 and beat Sportfreunde Siegen 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 10L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players1. FC Köln
No reported absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
1. FC Köln have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
1. FC Köln have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. 1. FC Köln player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
