1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Tips & Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Match Preview
The model favours 1899 Hoffenheim to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Hoffenheim currently sits 14th in the Bundesliga, having played four matches this season. Their form has been inconsistent, with one win and three losses leading to a goal difference of -3. However, they have managed to score seven goals, indicating a potential for attacking play that could exploit Hamburger SV's defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Hamburger SV is positioned 16th, also with one win and three losses. Their season has been particularly challenging, as they have scored only two goals while conceding 13, resulting in a goal difference of -11. This stark disparity in goals reflects their struggles, especially in defence, which could be a significant issue against Hoffenheim's attacking players. The model gives Hoffenheim a 68.7% probability of winning, with an 18.3% chance of a draw and a 13.0% chance of Hamburger SV winning. There's also a notable likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 68.5%. One caveat is that if Hoffenheim's defence falters, they could be vulnerable to Hamburger SV taking advantage of any lapses. For more on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
1899 Hoffenheim have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 1899 Hoffenheim win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. 1899 Hoffenheim are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.45 | 4.85 | 6.80 | 1.39 | 2.72 | 1.56 | 2.27 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.44 | 4.91 | 7.13 | 1.41 | 2.95 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.58 | 5.70 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.40 | |
| 1.42 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.49 | 4.98 | 6.98 | 1.39 | 2.72 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.20 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (1899 Hoffenheim leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV, Hoffenheim has won 5 times, Hamburger SV has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided encounters, with Hoffenheim achieving notable victories, including a 4-1 win and a 3-0 win. However, Hamburger SV also secured a 3-0 win in their favor. The matches have featured a few high-scoring games, but overall, there are signs of competitive balance with several narrow results and a draw frequency that suggests neither team has dominated the other decisively.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | LWLL |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season1899 Hoffenheim have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 and beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 10L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hamburger SV have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to RB Leipzig 5-0 and lost to Borussia Dortmund 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 11L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players1899 Hoffenheim
No reported absences
Hamburger SV
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
1899 Hoffenheim have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; Hamburger SV 1.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
1899 Hoffenheim have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. 1899 Hoffenheim player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
