SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Match Preview
The model favours VfB Stuttgart to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 15th in the Bundesliga, Stuttgart has struggled early in the season, securing just one victory from their four matches. They have scored six goals but conceded nine, leading to a negative goal difference of three. Their recent form shows promise, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are beginning to find their rhythm. In contrast, SC Paderborn 07 sits in 12th place, having recorded one win, one draw, and two losses from four fixtures. They have scored three goals while allowing five, resulting in a goal difference of minus two. While their form includes two wins in their last five matches, they will need to improve on both ends of the pitch to challenge Stuttgart effectively. The model gives VfB Stuttgart a 57.7% win probability, while Paderborn sits at 20.8%. The projected score indicates a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 67.4%, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 63.7%. However, Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities could leave them exposed, making the outcome uncertain. For a detailed explanation of how we arrived at this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
VfB Stuttgart have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 VfB Stuttgart win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. VfB Stuttgart are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.95 | 4.70 | 1.59 | 1.34 | 2.93 | 1.43 | 2.62 | |
| 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 5.03 | 4.82 | 1.58 | 1.36 | 3.17 | — | — | |
| 4.39 | 4.13 | 1.52 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 4.33 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.57 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 5.08 | 4.83 | 1.64 | 1.34 | 2.93 | 1.43 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 4.80 | 4.50 | 1.62 | 1.42 | 2.95 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 4.60 | 4.33 | 1.53 | 1.36 | 2.82 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (VfB Stuttgart leads 2-0)In the last three encounters between SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart, Stuttgart has won twice, while one match ended in a draw. The scorelines indicate that Stuttgart has consistently edged out Paderborn, with both of their victories being narrow 2-1 results. The drawn match was a low-scoring affair, finishing 0-0. Paderborn has not managed to secure a win against Stuttgart in these fixtures, highlighting a challenging head-to-head dynamic.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WLLD |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat SC Paderborn 07 3-1 and beat SC Paderborn 07 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 3L from the last 20 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
VfB Stuttgart have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 and lost to Bayern München 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 11L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Paderborn 07
No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SC Paderborn 07 have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; VfB Stuttgart 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. VfB Stuttgart player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
